Core Tip: From the bottom of the cycle at the end of last year, the price of panels of various sizes has risen across the board this year, but the price has fallen again since the third quarter. At present, it has maintained a relatively stable trend, but it is still relatively weak. According to the latest global LCD TV panel shipment research data released by Sigmaintell, in terms of quantity benchmarks, the global shipment of LCD TV panels in the third quarter of 2024 was 59.53 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%.
Starting from the bottom of the cycle at the end of last year, the price of panels of various sizes has risen across the board this year, but since the third quarter, the price side has fallen again. At present, it has maintained a relatively stable trend, but it is still relatively weak. According to the latest global LCD TV panel shipment research data released by Sigmaintell, in terms of quantity benchmarks, the global shipment of LCD TV panels in the third quarter of 2024 was 59.53 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%.
In this regard, Zhao Jun, senior vice president of TCL Technology and CEO of TCL Huaxing, admitted in an interview with reporters a few days ago that in the large-size LCD market, some time ago, everyone was more worried about the downgrade of the whole market. But at the same time, it said that some positive changes have been seen now.
First of all, we feel the government's efforts to boost the economy and stimulate consumption. The home appliance subsidy policy has indeed had a positive impact on consumers. Zhao Jun said, "Take TV consumption as an example. Since September, the overall demand has achieved a significant year-on-year growth. Against the background of the continuous decline in TV demand in the past two years, this growth is particularly precious and has played a positive role in promoting the change of the relationship between supply and demand in the market. In addition, we note that this state subsidy does not treat all products equally, but has a clear policy orientation, especially for energy-saving products and large-size and high-end products, which is a very good policy orientation for the development of the whole industry.
Secondly, from the perspective of supply, since the second half of 2022,the display panel enterprises in the past two years have changed the previous model of competing for market share through price, ensuring shipments and maintaining a high crop dynamic rate due to the pressure of survival and development. Zhao Jun said, "We turn to dynamically adjust the crop movement rate according to the fluctuation of market demand to maintain the balance and health of the overall supply and demand relationship. After two years of operation, the ability of panel enterprises to grasp the fluctuation of market demand has been improved,and the response speed of response to market changes has also been improved. Therefore, our change on the supply side is to produce according to demand and dynamically maintain the balanced development of the market.
"The interaction between supply and demand allows us to see that the current overall TV panel market is in a relatively balanced and healthy state, so we are optimistic about the future." Zhao Jun added. Li Dongsheng, founder and chairman of TCL, is also optimistic about large-size LCDs. In the recent CCTV "Dialogue" program, Li Dongsheng said that the industry generally believes that the next generation of display technology will replace LCD in a very long cycle in the future. However, judging from TCL's own development experience, there is no technology that can replace LCD in terms of large-screen display.
"In the foreseeable future, LCD must be the mainstream in large-screen display, and with the support of new technological innovations such as Mini LED or other quantum dot technologies, the life cycle of LCD products will be longer and more competitive." Li Dongsheng said.
Qunzhi Consulting pointed out that driven by the national subsidy policy, the forecast value of panel shipments from September to the fourth quarter of this year has increased by about 2.2 million pieces compared with the previous one. Although it entered the off-season of the global panel market in the fourth quarter of this year, it is obvious that China's national subsidy policy has served as a stabilizer for the off-season effect.
Looking forward to the fourth quarter of this year, analysts of Huatai Securities believe that considering the increased production control of head panel factories and the recovery of TV demand, the price of large-size LCD panels is expected to stabilize and remain stable.
